Recessions, like earthquakes, are impossible to predict confidently

Recessions, like earthquakes, are impossible to predict confidently

Some economic observers continue to warn about signs of a potential U.S. recession. Glenn MacDonald, the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics and Strategy at Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis, says many signs aren’t particularly reliable — but keep an eye on housing starts.

Tax renewals: buying time or a ‘permanently temporary’ fix?

Cheryl Block, JD, federal budget and tax expert and professor of law at Washington University in St. Louis, weighs in on tax cut extensions. “We want it all: low tax rates, government spending on the programs we prefer, and — ideally — a balanced budget,” she says. “Perhaps not surprisingly, the desire for prudent budgets increasingly loses out to the first two demands.”

U.S. monetary policy focus of Feb. 5 forum

Experts from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and around the country will be on the Washington University campus Friday, Feb. 5, to discuss the Federal Reserve’s role during the recent recession and future directions for policy. The free public conference, “Monetary Policy Amid Economic Turbulence,” begins at 2:30 p.m. in the Bryan Cave Moot Court Room, Anheuser-Busch Hall.

Businesses increase innovation spending in recession

SawyerEven as the United States faces the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, businesses are spending more money on innovation, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report. Keith Sawyer, Ph.D., assistant professor of education and psychology in Arts & Sciences and one of the country’s leading experts on the science of creativity, says that investing in innovation is one of the best ways to beat the recession.

A “Minsky moment”

FazzariWUSTL economist Steven Fazzari, Ph.D., argues that we have now reached the “Minsky moment,” the time when an unsustainable financial boom turns to bust. “The serious consequences for employment and economic growth in this crisis can be mitigated, but not eliminated, by the defensive financial bailouts that the federal government has initiated,” Fazzari says.
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